NAR Forecast: 2026 Brings Big Rebound for Buyers and Sellers
📌 Driving the news: Home sales are projected to surge 14% in 2026, with home prices rising another 4%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
That comes after a slower 2025, where sales remained flat and prices edged up just 3%.
📌 Details:
- Mortgage rates are expected to drop from 6.7% in 2025 to 6% in 2026.
- Mortgage applications are already up 31% year over year, buyers are getting a head start.
- New home construction is forecasted to rise 5%, adding much-needed inventory.
- Home prices aren’t expected to fall. Instead, tight supply will keep values climbing.
📌 Why it matters: After a challenging 2025, this forecast signals a shift. More sales and stable prices could mean smoother moves for both buyers and sellers.
For local homeowners, that likely translates to rising equity and stronger selling positions.
And for buyers? Easing rates offer a more affordable entry point (if they act before competition heats up).
📌 By the numbers:
- 14%: Forecasted jump in home sales in 2026
- 4%: Estimated home price increase for 2026
- 31%: Year-over-year rise in mortgage applications
- 21%: Current share of first-time buyers (down from the historical 40%)
- $750K–$1M homes: Segment seeing the most activity
📌 Between the lines: While the market is moving, it’s not moving evenly. First-time buyers are being priced out, with the average age now 40. Equity-rich homeowners are the ones driving the market.
If you’re buying for the first time, strategy and preparation are key.
📌 What’s next: Expect more buyers to return to the market as rates slide and headlines shift from uncertainty to opportunity. But don’t wait too long, when momentum returns, competition follows.
📌 The bottom line: 2026 is shaping up to be a window of opportunity. Whether you’re thinking of selling or buying, let’s talk now so you can hit the ground running when the market does.
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